Saturday, October 18, 2008

My Predictions for Iran's 10th Presidential Elections

This article (below) which I found on the Asia Times website, is in my opinion one of the most accurate and in-depth analyses I have read so far about Iran's presidential elections coming up in 8 months!!!!

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JJ17Ak01.html

It's a wonderful piece of analysis, it confirms a lot of things I was guessing about what's going on in Iran, I feel exactly the same as the writer of this article, and I think he's spot on!!!!!
why do I say that? if you scroll down to the last picture on this page (below), you'll see why!!!!

http://yazdonline.com/NewsDetail.aspx?id=979

In this picture you see Dr. Aref standing on the right of President Khatami and Dr. Zarif on his left (or looking at the picture, Zarif on the right and Aref on the left), and as they say "A picture is worth a 1000 words!"!!! :-)

I know people in Iran are so disillusioned and skeptical about FREEDOM (or lack there of) in their Council of Guardians, that they think their only chance for a winning, viable and credible Reformist candidate is President Khatami himself and nobody else, but they need to realize that the world is changing, and Mr. Khatami is actually much more valuable to them as the leader of the Reform movement than a mere President!!!

Now, here's the humble opinion of this "Citizen of the World" (me) about who should be selected by the two main political parties of Iran as the nominnees of the Center-Right and Center-Left camps, and hence, hopefully pushing the current fundamentalist rulers of IRI's establishment i.e., Ahmadinejad's Far-Right to the margines! Who among the candidates that the writer of this Asia Times article is mentioning, should be chosen by the "National Confidence Party" (Center-Left) and the "Islamic Coalition Party" (Center-Right)?

Yes, as Mr. Askari points out, Iranians need to come up with a soft-spoken, Western-educated, smart and rational president to represent them at that "Grand Bargain" negotiating table with President Obama at the other side, but who?

From the right: Dr. Ali Larijani or Dr. Ali-Akbar Velayati,

From the left: Dr. Mohammad-Reza Aref or Mir Hossein Mousavi,


The question is, which one of them, if elected will have the WISDOM and necessary foresight to appoint Dr. Zarif as his Foreign Minister or better yet as the head of Iran's National Security Council?

Watch these videos of Dr. Zarif's AMAZINGLY brilliant speeches at Princeton University and in front of UN, and you will know why I believe so strongly in Dr. Zarif being the ONLY man who can SAVE Iran:

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-1857501937527604694&q=javad+zarif

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVQZd9oyaz8


But the other thing that's important for the future of Iran's Reform movement, is that their candidate should be popular enough to be able to polarize the Iranian electorate, and establish the idea of a two-party politics in Iranian mentality! It's time that the radical, anti-democratic fundamentalists of Iran get to see and ACCEPT that the two sides of the political spectrum have to coexist and respect one another, no matter how they feel about each other's views!

Fundamentalists like Ahmadinejad who do not even like the idea of party politics, need to realize that they can no longer continue to destroy people's credibility and dignity just because they have differing views, they can no longer continue their character assassinations of the other side, and they can no longer even contemplate the shameful practices of the Guardian Council by disqualifying candidates just because they are on the left of the political spectrum in Iran!!!!!!

It's time that the wise men of the Expediency Council do something about REALLY and TRULY allowing Iran to be a non-monolithic society, and recognize the fact that the two sides NEED to each come up with candidates that will solidify their respective bases fairly and freely!

I believe that eventually, after a series of "primary-style" party elections, the "National Confidence Party" nominting either Dr. Aref or Mir Hossein Mousavi from the left, and the "Islamic Coalition Party" nominating either Dr. Larijani or Dr. Velayati from the right, can push radical, extremist, anti-democratic fundamentalists like Ahmadinejad to the fringes of society, and will give the Iranian people a CLEAR choice between the Right and the Left!

Now, unlike Mr. Askari who wrote that article on Asia Times, I would like to also include Dr. Ebtekar in the race? She was not mentioned in that article because she's a woman, but I will explain why she should be considered as well:

We all know that with the current fundamentalist makeup of the Guardian Council (headed by a staunch backer of Ahmadinejad, i.e., Mr. Jannati), there is no way a woman can be given the permission to run for presidency, because people like Jannati are by definition anti womens' rights! They consider women as second class citizens and they say so in public without any shame!!!! But if the reform movement of President Khatami is REALLY progressive and liberal enough to actually want to do something to eventually change that sexist mentality in Iran, they need to start talking about it SERIOUISLY, starting this election cycle!

Just like in America, where Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama competed for the nomination of their party, in Iran too, the National Confidence Party aught to at least bring a woman into the field (and there's no other Iranian woman more qualified than Mr. Khatami's former Vice-President Ebtekar), and start to legitimize even the idea of a woman president in Iran, which at the moment is considered an impossible dream! Of course, she will be disqualifiued by the Guardian Council, leaving only one of those two men as the only reformist (or Center-Left) candidate, but in and of itself, the fact that a legitimate party, headed by a prominent cleric (Mr. Karroubi) and led by Iran's most beloved popular leader (Mr. Khatami) will nominate a woman to the Guardian Council for consideration as a presidential candidate, it will be a huge step for Women's Rights in Iran!


Now, even if Dr. Aref or Mir Hossein Mousavi ends up losing the 50-50 divide, by a small margine of 49-51, and one of the two moderate-conservative candidates (Drs. Larijani or Velayati) who will hopefully be nominated by the "Islamic Coalition Party", ends up winning the election next June, this evidence of a polarization (i.e., the 49-51 results) will give the fundamentalists in the system, an accurate picture of how popular and powerful former Presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani and former Parliament Speaker Karroubi still are in being able to move the masses behind their preferred candidate! This is a very IMPORTANT lesson for the fundamentalists to learn! At the moment, it looks like they seem to think Iran is one big united family 100% behind every single opinion Mr. Khamenei has, which is obviously not true! Iran is NOT a monolith, so let's prove that to its own people as well as to the world!



So, for me (half-way across the world from Iran, but looking at it from the proverbial 10000 feet view) the best two candidates representing Iran's Left and Right, are Mir Hossein Mousavi and Ali Akbar Velayati.
BUT NO CLERICS for president, please!!!!! I hope somebody can convince Mr. Karroubi that Iran is going to need good rational and moderate clerics in the Assembly of Experts, the Guardian Council, and the Judiciary system!!!! There are enough non-cleric Islamic experts and experienced young intellectuals to run for presidency, so popular and fair-minded clerics like him can be much more help to the people if they try to get into the existing governmental clerical bodies, hopefully replacing fundamentalists like Mr. Jannati in that shameful entity called The Council of Guardians (or in better words: "Council of Discriminators")!!!!! Same goes for Mr. Rowhani! Please learn from Mr. Khatami and Mr. Rafsanjani, and exert your powers in places where people REALLY need you!

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Advice to Freedom Loving Iranians!

As someone who was born in Iran, lived through the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and then left that world behind in pursuit of her own personal freedoms, now having lived more than half of her life in the West, I think I have the advantage of being able to look at the situation in Iran from the proverbial "10000 feet view"!

I left Iran 21 years ago, and at that time, the fundamentalist hijackers of our revolution had managed to completely steal the Republic from its Founding Fathers. The future of Iran seemed as bleak and hopeless as it did in its worst periods in history, such as the Ghajar era, the Mongol invasion, the 2 centuries of silence, ...!

Of course, a lot has changed over the past couple of decades in Iran, and most significant of them is the Reform Movement of former President Khatami in 1997. However, the pace of CHANGE has been very slow and the success of REFORM has been hindered by the fact that unfortunately Iran's fundamentalists of the far-right have continued to maintain and exert their power and influence on the society more than any other group in that country's political spectrum.

Now a days, when I read about Mr. Khatami daring to extend a hand of cooperation to the once vilified Freedom Movement of Iran, and how he is trying to reintroduce the notion of "liberalism" to the Iranian public, it all seems hard to believe for me, and I'm shocked but quite pleasantly so!

However, I shouldn't perhaps be too shocked, because thanks to the new approach that seems to be taken by the rational, pragmatic, and smart liberals in America, such as Barack Obama and his friends and supporters (young and old), I think the Theocratic Dictatorship of Iran can see no other choice but to save itself through major and REAL reforms and course-correction! Hence, their need for the REAL revolutionaries of 1979! Thank God there are also rational, pragmatic, and smart people even in the clerical class of Iran!


I have been writing (on Persian Paradox = Dr. Ebtekar's weblog) about my Utopian "dream" of a push by the Assembly of Experts to revise the wisdom of keeping "Supreme Leadership" as a lifelong term, and instead, to change it to a finite term of 25 years, at the end of which there can be celebrations and hoopla and fanfare to commemorate and recognize the achievements of the outgoing Supreme Leader, and passing the torch of our revolution's "Principles" to the incoming Supreme Leader!

Why do I have this dream???
Even though I was only a kid during the revolution, but I do remember somethings and I'm sure people like Dr. Ebtekar who were young adults and university students at the time, and actually involved in the revolution, MUST remember the slogans and the ideals and principles that their fellow revolutionary students sacrificed their lives for:
"Independence, Freedom, Islamic Republic"

Let's look at these slogans carefully:

Independence? What did PEOPLE mean when they shouted for Independence? Iran was not a colony, it wasn't under the occupation of any other country, so why was it so important to DEMAND "Independence"??? They were talking about political, technological, and economic INDEPENDENCE from the Shah's Western masters (i.e., United States of America, United Kingdom, and Israel)!

Freedom? That one was much more obvious to most people, due to the despotic and dictatorial nature of the Shah's rule which made it impossible for people to exercise their basic and inalienable rights and freedoms, like Freedom of Speech, Freedom of Press, Freedom of Opinion, ...

Islamic Republic? This one of course has TWO parts to it, and I would like people like Dr. Ebtekar and other politicians in Iran to pay attention to the origin of this term! Let's remember 1979!!!

What were PEOPLE referring to when shouting and screaming these slogans in front of the bullets of Shah's Imperial Guards? What were they expressing as their HOPES and ASPIRATIONS for the future generations as they were taking their last breaths, wounded and on the verge of ascending to heaven, lying in the pool of their own sacred blood? Those martyrs (shaheed) of the 17th Shahrivar who gave their lives for this revolution of which you have now become custodians, what did they mean when they said "Islamic Republic"? Did they simply mean "Islamic rule"? Were they referring to the sermons of Ruhollah Khomeinin in Najaf about "Velayat Faghih"????!!!! Did those young university students mean to say we want to just replace the Shah (king) with a Faghih (priest) and that's how we hope to insure our country's Independence and Freedom????!!!! I'm sure you know the answer to that!!!!

Maybe there were a number of clerics involved in the revolution, who were inspired by Ruhollah Khomeini's sermons about an Imam-Ali-like regime in which social justice could be promoted in the style of that Imam's moral teachings, but the youth, the majority of the revolutionary activists who GAVE their LIVES for that revolution did not learn their principles from those sermons, they learned and were inspired by the theories put forward by Ali Shariati, Morteza Motahhari, Jalal Al-e-Ahmad, Ayatollah Taleghani and other such Islamic intellectuals who had written books and given speeches at the Hosseyniyeh Ershah for years, had been taken to jail, had been tortured by the Shah's secret service (SAVAK), and had a REAL moral authority to speak of the principles of the REVOLUTION they were inspiring in the youth! Ayatollah Khomeini was in France by then! Safe and Sound!

So, what did that two-word term of "Islamic Republic" really mean? What did those Founding Fathers have in mind when they specifically said Islamic REPUBLIC?????

We had a draft of what they meant in the original constitution which scholars such as Dr. Beheshti, Ostad Motahhari, Prime Minister Bazargan and others wrote in the first few months of 1979, in that glorious "Spring of Freedom"! It was a REPUBLIC based on the rule of law, by the PEOPLE, of the PEOPLE, and at the same time, under the moral guidance of Islamic laws, headed by a high priest (=Faghih) called "Supreme Leader" as a supervising arbiter of its moral direction! It was NOT meant to become an "Islamic Hokoomat" (Islamic Rule), but an "Islamic Republic", in actuality, and not just in name!

Now, with respect to these 3 slogans and principles of the revolution, where is Iran after almost 30 years? Do people feel that they have "Freedom of Speech", "Freedom of Opinion", "Freedom of Press", "Freedom of Religion", "Freedom of Expression"????? Do people feel that they are totally "Independent" of both Western AND Eastern influence in their political, technological and economic standing in the world? and most importantly, is this "Islamic Rule of the Clerical Class" what people had bargained for 30 years ago? Is what Iran has right now, truly a REPUBLIC? Do people vote freely and elect their representatives according to what they know of them? or according to what the clerical class allows them to know? Are presidents and members of the Parliament allowed to express opinions and put forward agendas that are not 100% in agreement with ONE doctrine and ONE alone, which is that of the "Supreme Leader"? Then what does the title of president even mean? If the policies of the regime are set by the "Supreme Leader", then isn't the president only a slave to those policies? Isn't the Parliament bound by the policies of ONE and only ONE person alone???? Isn't this more reminiscent of the Pahlavi monarchy than what any of those martyrs of 17 Shahrivar ever dreamed of as they took their last breaths on earth hoping that their bloods could pave the way for a better society in which there was:
Independence, Freedom, and Islamic Republic?


The beauty of the Reform Movement headed by former president Mohammad Khatami, is that these short-comings are recognized!!!!

So, according to my Utopian dream, ... if the next president of Iran (anyone BUT Ahmadinejad) manages to make that "grand bargain" deal with President Obama within the first term of his presidency, and therefore allowing Mr. Khamenei to claim HIS own leadership's success in demanding respect for Iranians and achieving Iran's technological and political INDEPENDENCE, then it can be packaged (by the pragmatic and realistic ones in the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council) as this:

1) Seyyed Ruhollah Khomeini achieved the first goal of our revolution = Islamic Republic
2) Seyyed Ali Khamenei achieved the second goal of our revolution = Independence
3) Seyyed Mohammad Khatami is the only leader who can pave the way for us to achieve the third goal of our revolution = Freedom


At this very crucial time in history, all Iranian reformists and Freedom-seeking leftists, with the backing of Mr. Khatami and Rafsanjani, NEED to prove to the world that Iran is on its way toward that Utopia! You need to demonstrate the non-monolithic nature of Iran and the MODERATE and peaceful characteristic of an IRI regime that can be possible within the next 9 months!
Good Luck!

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Answers to Holly from Persian Paradox

Dear Holly,
On Persian Paradox you wrote:

I usually agree with most of your posts and I admire your passion and knowledge on Iran history and politics. However, in you last post you called for "Islamic Democracy" which to me that is an oxymoron. How would you govern with the backward Quran and Sharia laws in a 21st century environment? Islam and its laws belong in mosques not in Parliaments.
October 1, 2008 7:59 PM

I posted a comment in response to you on Persian Paradox, but in case Dr. Ebtekar chooses to censor me again and NOT post my comment, here it is for you:


Dear Holly,
The Sharia law (Islamic Jurisprudence) and the Shiite book of rules called "Mafatih" are indeed things of the past, good for 1400 years ago, perhaps best suited for Arabs of the "jaheliyat" era, but the Holy Quran is not!!!!!
The Quran does not have to be interpreted by fundamentalists and reactionary extremists who don't understand its wisdom!

Islamic Democracy was a promise that was never fulfilled in Iran, not after the fundamentalists took over and hijacked that glorious "Spring of Freedom" (1979) from the people who had fought for 25 years (after the coup of 1953) to free Iran from the dictatorship of a despotic king and the quasi-colonialism of Western Imperialists!

Now though, I believe that people like Mr. Khatami can reverse that wrong path, and steer the ship back in the right direction toward true Islamic Democracy, but you know? this term is not an oxymoron, in that it doesn't refer to the fundamentalist version of Islam, but to the modern, enlightened, and evolved nature of its 21st century version!

Whether you and I like it or not, those people (in the Middle East, of which Iran is a part) have a real connection with their religion, and they can't embrace Democracy the Western style! They need to define it according to their own culture, and when scholars and theoreicians of the revolution (like Dr. Shariati, Ostad Motahari, Dr. Beheshti, Prime Minister Bazargan, ...) came up with a clear definition of the flavor of Democracy that can be feasible and in accordance to that culture, by no means did they ever have this IRI in mind!!!!!

What we see in Iran today is just a ghost of that ideal, and it has in reality turned into the same despotic dictatorship we had under the Pahlavi monarchy, except it is now in the hands of the clerical class!!!!!! but you know what? there is actually a silver-lining here:

This so-called IRI has been helpful in turning many Iranians away from their brand of fundamentalist Islam over the past 3 decades, and they have in a way helped accelerate the evolution of the society's political psyche! The majority of Iran's youth (which is 65% of the Iranian population) no longer looks at the moon and claims to have seen the face of an Ayatollah in it! That's quite an improvement from 30 years ago, don't you think???
:-)

October 3, 2008 6:15 PM


Please make your own weblog visible to the outside, so that people can read your posts and leave comments for you there.

Thanks!